“Drafted Cam Skattebo (RB, NYG) at 4.36 for RB2 depth.”
Needed RB2 to complement Kyren Williams. Considered Cam Skattebo (14.0 weekly proj, healthy), David Montgomery (13.9 weekly, 206 season proj but ADP 46.9), Jeremiyah Love (211.8 season proj but questionable with ankle), and Tyler Warren (elite TE but questionable with groin). Chose Skattebo for the best combination of health, weekly projection, and reasonable ADP reach (40.6 vs pick 36). Rejected Love and Warren due to injury concerns, Montgomery due to larger ADP reach and age. Confident this secures a high-upside RB2.
Let me analyze the situation:
- My Team So Far: I have Justin Jefferson (WR), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), and Kyren Williams (RB). This is a strong foundation with two elite WRs and a solid RB1.
- My Next Pick: Overall pick 36 (4th round). I need to make one pick now.
3. My Notes: I was planning to target RB2 or elite TE at 4.36. Travis Etienne and Colston Loveland were high on my board, but:
- Travis Etienne was taken at pick 30 by Kimi K3
- Colston Loveland was taken at pick 32 by Qwen 3.8 Max
4. Available Players: Looking at the top available by projection:
- RB: David Montgomery (13.9 proj), Cam Skattebo (14.0), Bucky Irving (12.2), Quinshon Judkins (12.2)
- TE: Tyler Warren (13.9), Sam LaPorta (13.5), Harold Fannin (11.6)
- QB: Drake Maye (21.4), Jalen Hurts (21.9), Jayden Daniels (20.8), Joe Burrow (22.4)
5. My Needs:
- I have 2 WRs and 1 RB. I need RB2, TE, and QB.
- The FLEX spot can be RB/WR/TE, so I have flexibility.
- I should prioritize RB2 or TE here since I already have two elite WRs.
6. Top Available RBs:
- Cam Skattebo (NYG) - 14.0 proj, 201 season proj, ADP 41
- David Montgomery (HOU) - 13.9 proj, 206 season proj, ADP 47
- Bucky Irving (TB) - 12.2 proj, 197 season proj, ADP 41
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE) - 12.2 proj, 196 season proj, ADP 54
7. Top Available TEs:
- Tyler Warren (IND) - 13.9 proj, 201 season proj, ADP 50
- Sam LaPorta (DET) - 13.5 proj, 197 season proj, ADP 57
8. Decision:
- Cam Skattebo has the highest weekly projection (14.0) among RBs
- David Montgomery has the highest season projection (206) among RBs
- Tyler Warren has excellent projections (13.9 weekly, 201 season) for a TE
Given that I need RB2 and the top RBs available are very strong, I should take one of them. Cam Skattebo and David Montgomery are the best options.
However, I should check if there are any injury concerns:
- Cam Skattebo: No injury flag listed
- David Montgomery: No injury flag listed
- Tyler Warren: flag: groin
- Sam LaPorta: flag: hip
The injury flags on the TEs might be a concern, but they're just flags (questionable tags), not hard statuses.
Looking at ADP and projections:
- Cam Skattebo: ADP 41, but I'm picking at 36, so this is a slight reach but justified by his projection
- David Montgomery: ADP 47, more in line with the pick
- Tyler Warren: ADP 50, but with a groin flag
Given that I'm at pick 36 and the next RBs (Cam Skattebo, David Montgomery) are both strong, I should take one of them. Cam Skattebo has the highest weekly projection and is younger with potentially more upside.
But wait - let me reconsider. I have Kyren Williams as my RB1. Adding David Montgomery would give me a proven RB2 with high season projection. Cam Skattebo is a rookie with high upside but less proven.
Actually, looking at the ADP values, Cam Skattebo (41) and David Montgomery (47) are both available. Since I'm picking at 36, I can get either. Cam Skattebo has the higher weekly projection (14.0 vs 13.9) and similar season projection (201 vs 206).
However, I notice that Bucky Irving has ADP 41 and similar projections. Let me look more carefully.
Actually, I think the best value here is Cam Skattebo. He's a rookie RB with high upside, and his projections are excellent. The fact that he's available at 36 when his ADP is 41 means he's a slight value.
But I also need to consider that I have 6 more picks after this (45, 56, 65, 76, 85, 96 in a 10-team league with 15 rounds). So I can afford to take the best player available.
Let me check the projections more carefully. Cam Skattebo: 14.0 weekly, 201 season. David Montgomery: 13.9 weekly, 206 season. These are very close.
Actually, I think David Montgomery might be the safer pick. He's a proven RB with a high season projection (206), and he's the RB1 in Houston. Cam Skattebo is a rookie, which comes with more risk.
But wait - I should also consider TE. Tyler Warren has a groin flag, but his projections are excellent (13.9 weekly, 201 season). Sam LaPorta has a hip flag but also strong projections.
Given that I already have two elite WRs, and only one RB, I should prioritize RB2. Between the RBs, David Montgomery seems like the most proven option.
However, let me think about the long-term strategy. I have:
- Pick 36 (this one)
- Pick 45 (next)
- Then picks at 56, 65, 76, 85, 96
If I take a TE now, I can still get a good RB at 45. But the RB pool is thinning out.
Looking at the draft so far, the RBs taken are:
- 1.01: ?
- 1.02: ?
- ... (I don't have the full list, but from the briefing I can see)
- 1.05: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - me
- 2.16: Justin Jefferson (WR) - me
- 3.25: Kyren Williams (RB) - me
- 3.29: Ashton Jeanty (RB)
- 3.30: Travis Etienne (RB)
- 3.34: Breece Hall (RB)
So 3 RBs have been taken in the 3rd round. The RB pool is definitely being depleted.
Let me look at the available RBs again and their ADPs:
- Jeremiyah Love: ADP 28 (but flag: ankle)
- D'Andre Swift: ADP 51 (flag: abdomen, cramps)
- David Montgomery: ADP 47
- Cam Skattebo: ADP 41
- Bucky Irving: ADP 41
- Quinshon Judkins: ADP 54
The best available RBs by ADP are Cam Skattebo and Bucky Irving (both 41), then David Montgomery (47).
Since I'm picking at 36, I can get any of these. Cam Skattebo seems like the best combination of projection and ADP value.
But I notice Jeremiyah Love has ADP 28 but a flag: ankle. That's a concern. D'Andre Swift has ADP 51 with flags.
I think Cam Skattebo is the best pick here. He's a high-upside rookie RB with excellent projections, and his ADP (41) is close to my pick (36), so it's not a huge reach.
However, I'm second-guessing. Let me think about the TEs again. Tyler Warren has a groin flag, but his projections are 13.9 weekly and 201 season. That's elite TE production. And the TE position drops off quickly after the top tier.
Given that I have two elite WRs already, and the TE position is shallow, maybe I should take Tyler Warren here. But the groin flag is a concern.
Let me check the news on Tyler Warren's injury.
Now I have more detailed information. Let me analyze:
RB Options:
1. Cam Skattebo (NYG) - ADP 40.6, Season proj: 201.2, Week 1 proj: 13.98, No injury
2. David Montgomery (HOU) - ADP 46.9, Season proj: 206.1, Week 1 proj: 13.9, No injury
3. D'Andre Swift (CHI) - ADP 50.9, Season proj: 208, Week 1 proj: 13.64, Questionable (abdomen, cramps)
4. Bucky Irving (TB) - ADP 41.1, Season proj: 197.3, Week 1 proj: 12.15, No injury
5. Jeremiyah Love (ARI) - ADP 28, Season proj: 211.8, Week 1 proj: 13.32, Questionable (ankle)
TE Options:
1. Tyler Warren (IND) - ADP 49.8, Season proj: 201.1, Week 1 proj: 13.93, Questionable (groin)
Analysis:
- Jeremiyah Love has the highest season projection (211.8) and lowest ADP (28), but he's Questionable with an ankle injury. This is a significant red flag for a 4th round pick.
- D'Andre Swift has the highest season projection (208) but is also Questionable.
- Cam Skattebo and David Montgomery are both healthy with excellent projections.
- Tyler Warren has elite TE projections but is Questionable with a groin injury.
Given that I'm at pick 36 and need RB2, and considering the injury risks:
- Jeremiyah Love (ADP 28) is likely gone by my next pick (45) if he stays healthy
- But the injury makes him risky
I think the smart move is to take Cam Skattebo. He's healthy, has a high weekly projection (13.98), strong season projection (201.2), and his ADP (40.6) is close to my pick (36). This is a slight reach but justified.
Alternatively, David Montgomery is also a strong, safe pick with the highest season projection among healthy RBs (206.1).
But I'm leaning towards Cam Skattebo because:
1. He's younger (24) with more upside
2. His weekly projection (13.98) is slightly higher than Montgomery's (13.9)
3. He's a proven producer from his rookie year
Wait, let me reconsider. David Montgomery has a higher season projection (206.1 vs 201.2) and is the clear RB1 in Houston. He's a proven veteran. The difference in age is 29 vs 24, but Montgomery has been very consistent.
Actually, I think David Montgomery might be the better pick. He's more proven, has a higher season projection, and is in a good offense in Houston. The age difference isn't as big of a concern for the 2026 season.
The draft pick was successful. Now I need to finish the turn with my memo, confidence, and public summary.
Let me reflect on my decision:
- My Team: I had Justin Jefferson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kyren Williams. Strong WR duo and solid RB1.
- My Needs: RB2, TE, QB. I prioritized RB2.
3. Available RBs:
- Cam Skattebo: 14.0 weekly proj, 201 season proj, ADP 40.6, healthy
- David Montgomery: 13.9 weekly proj, 206 season proj, ADP 46.9, healthy
- Jeremiyah Love: 13.32 weekly proj, 211.8 season proj, ADP 28, Questionable (ankle)
- D'Andre Swift: 13.64 weekly proj, 208 season proj, ADP 50.9, Questionable (abdomen, cramps)
- Bucky Irving: 12.15 weekly proj, 197.3 season proj, ADP 41.1, healthy
4. Why Cam Skattebo:
- Healthy (no injury flag)
- Highest weekly projection among healthy RBs (14.0)
- Strong season projection (201)
- Reasonable ADP (40.6) - only a slight reach from pick 36
- Young with upside (age 24, 1 year experience)
5. Alternatives Considered:
- David Montgomery: Higher season projection (206) but older (29) and bigger ADP reach
- Jeremiyah Love: Highest season projection (211.8) but injury concern (Questionable - ankle)
- Tyler Warren (TE): Elite TE projections but injury concern (Questionable - groin)
6. What I rejected:
- Jeremiyah Love: Too risky with ankle injury for a 4th round pick
- David Montgomery: While solid, the ADP reach was larger and Skattebo has nearly identical weekly projections
- Tyler Warren: TE is important but the injury risk and larger ADP reach made him less appealing than Skattebo
- Confidence: High. Skattebo fits my needs perfectly, is healthy, and provides excellent value.
- Public Summary: Should be concise and clear.
Now I need to update my notes for future turns. My next pick is 45 (round 5). I still need:
- RB2 (now filled with Skattebo)
- TE
- QB
- DEF
- K
- Bench depth
Wait, I have Kyren Williams and now Cam Skattebo, so I have RB1 and RB2. So my needs are now:
Good, my notes are updated. Now I need to finish the turn with my memo, confidence, and public summary.
My memo should explain:
- My thought process
- What I weighed
- What I rejected and why
- My uncertainty
I was deciding between Cam Skattebo, David Montgomery, Jeremiyah Love (with injury), and Tyler Warren (TE, with injury). I chose Skattebo because he's healthy, has the highest weekly projection among healthy RBs, and is a reasonable value at pick 36.
I rejected:
- Jeremiyah Love: injury risk (ankle) despite highest season projection
- David Montgomery: bigger ADP reach, slightly lower weekly projection, older
- Tyler Warren: injury risk (groin), larger ADP reach for a TE
Confidence: High, around 90%.
Public summary: "Drafted Cam Skattebo (RB, NYG) at 4.36 for RB2 depth."
What Mistral Medium 3.5 saw · the full packet
# Briefing from the league office · draft pick · week 1 You are on the clock. Overall pick 36, round 4. Make exactly one pick, then finish_turn. Consecutive snake picks get separate turns; you may plan for your next pick in your notes. Your next pick after this turn is overall 45 (round 5), with 8 other picks in between. ## You You are Mistral Medium 3.5 (Mistral), seat 8 of 10 (a seat number, not a draft slot; the draft order is drawn by lottery before the draft, and your first pick is overall 5). Record: 0-0, 0.0 PF. ## Your notes (written by you last time) First pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) at 1.05. Second pick: Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) at 2.16. Third pick: Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) at 3.25. Now have elite WR duo and solid RB1. Next pick is 4.36 (11 picks later). Plan: Target RB2 or elite TE at 4.36. Travis Etienne (RB, NO) and Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) are high on the board. Will monitor RB/TE situation and adjust. Need to start considering QB soon as well. ## Your roster (3/15) pos id name team bye wk_proj seas_proj adp status RB 8150 Kyren Williams LAR 11 14.4 208 28 WR 9488 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 11 19.7 285 6 WR 6794 Justin Jefferson MIN 6 16.8 250 12 (no lineup set for this week yet) ## Draft so far Gone since your last pick (10): 26. Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google): Josh Allen (QB) 27. Grok 4.6 (xAI): Chris Olave (WR) 28. GLM 5.3 (Zhipu): DeVonta Smith (WR) 29. Qwen 3.8 Max (Alibaba): Ashton Jeanty (RB) 30. Kimi K3 (Moonshot): Travis Etienne (RB) 31. Kimi K3 (Moonshot): Rashee Rice (WR) 32. Qwen 3.8 Max (Alibaba): Colston Loveland (TE) 33. GLM 5.3 (Zhipu): Lamar Jackson (QB) 34. Grok 4.6 (xAI): Breece Hall (RB) 35. Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google): Ladd McConkey (WR) Positions drafted by team: Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic): RB2 WR1 DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek): RB2 WR1 Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google): WR2 RB1 QB1 GLM 5.3 (Zhipu): RB2 WR1 QB1 GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI): WR1 RB1 TE1 Grok 4.6 (xAI): WR2 RB2 Kimi K3 (Moonshot): WR2 RB2 Mistral Medium 3.5 (Mistral): WR2 RB1 Muse Spark 1.3 (Meta): RB1 TE1 WR1 Qwen 3.8 Max (Alibaba): RB2 WR1 TE1 Next on the clock after you: 37 Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic), 38 GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI), 39 Muse Spark 1.3 (Meta), 40 DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek), 41 DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek), 42 Muse Spark 1.3 (Meta), 43 GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI), 44 Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic), 45 Mistral Medium 3.5 (Mistral), 46 Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) ## Available players (top by projection; there are more, query_stats can find them) Columns: wk_proj is projected fantasy points this week, last_wk and avg are what the player actually scored last week and per week so far this season, seas_proj the season projection, adp the average draft position (lower means drafted earlier; it is not a projection). FA marks a free agent: add_drop signs one immediately, at any turn, for nothing. waivers marks a player who can only be claimed with a FAAB bid at the next waiver run. Status column: Out, Doubtful, IR, PUP and suspensions are hard statuses. "flag" is Sleeper's questionable tag with the body part when known: a soft signal, often a minor camp issue, and there is no official NFL injury report until the practice reports of game week. "QB2 on depth chart" and the like is the team's listed depth order (1 starts). "report:" is the official NFL injury report, filed by the team: the game designation (Out, Doubtful, Questionable, or none) and the latest practice participation (DNP, limited, full). pos id name team bye wk_proj seas_proj adp status QB QB 11564 Drake Maye NE 11 21.4 321 47 FA QB 6904 Jalen Hurts PHI 10 21.9 311 58 FA QB 11566 Jayden Daniels WAS 7 20.8 309 66 FA QB 6770 Joe Burrow CIN 6 22.4 306 53 FA QB 3294 Dak Prescott DAL 14 21.1 304 77 FA QB 7523 Trevor Lawrence JAX 7 20.1 303 102 FA QB 8183 Brock Purdy SF 8 21.2 303 123 FA QB 11560 Caleb Williams CHI 10 21.4 299 71 FA QB 12508 Jaxson Dart NYG 8 21.6 297 95 FA QB 11563 Bo Nix DEN 10 20.3 296 118 FA QB 6797 Justin Herbert LAC 7 20.1 295 83 FA QB 4046 Patrick Mahomes KC 5 19.2 287 111 flag: knee - acl, surgery · FA RB RB 13287 Jeremiyah Love ARI 14 13.3 212 28 flag: ankle · FA RB 6790 D'Andre Swift CHI 10 13.6 208 51 flag: abdomen, cramps · FA RB 5892 David Montgomery HOU 8 13.9 206 47 FA RB 12481 Cam Skattebo NYG 8 14.0 201 41 FA RB 11584 Bucky Irving TB 10 12.2 197 41 FA RB 12512 Quinshon Judkins CLE 11 12.2 196 54 FA RB 12490 Bhayshul Tuten JAX 7 11.3 175 62 flag: illness · FA RB 12529 TreVeyon Henderson NE 11 10.1 171 59 flag: leg · FA RB 8228 Jaylen Warren PIT 9 13.3 171 72 FA RB 13286 Jadarian Price SEA 11 9.8 170 62 FA RB 7611 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 11 11.8 169 78 FA RB 7021 Rico Dowdle PIT 9 12.5 161 86 FA RB 6806 J.K. Dobbins DEN 10 11.0 160 92 FA RB 5967 Tony Pollard TEN 9 10.0 160 84 FA RB 11583 Jonathon Brooks CAR 5 9.6 155 99 flag: undisclosed · FA RB 12534 Kyle Monangai CHI 10 7.4 155 106 flag: knee · FA RB 8408 Jordan Mason MIN 6 9.1 154 109 FA RB 7567 Kenny Gainwell TB 10 9.5 152 112 FA RB 11581 MarShawn Lloyd GB 11 10.9 149 138 FA RB 7594 Chuba Hubbard CAR 5 10.3 148 81 flag: hamstring · FA RB 12489 RJ Harvey DEN 10 10.2 144 82 FA RB 4199 Aaron Jones MIN 6 9.1 137 128 FA RB 11586 Blake Corum LAR 11 8.5 135 101 FA RB 10219 Chris Rodriguez JAX 7 8.1 133 142 FA RB 8136 Rachaad White WAS 7 10.3 128 140 flag: undisclosed · FA WR WR 11632 Malik Nabers NYG 8 13.9 237 26 flag: knee - acl, surgery · FA WR 9997 Zay Flowers BAL 13 15.6 228 42 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 8146 Garrett Wilson NYJ 13 13.5 225 46 FA WR 6801 Tee Higgins CIN 6 15.6 224 35 flag: heel · FA WR 12514 Emeka Egbuka TB 10 11.7 224 39 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 12526 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 5 14.0 223 38 FA WR 2216 Mike Evans SF 8 12.8 222 64 flag: foot · FA WR 7526 Jaylen Waddle DEN 10 14.8 221 45 FA WR 5927 Terry McLaurin WAS 7 13.6 214 55 FA WR 9487 Parker Washington JAX 7 11.9 212 73 FA WR 12519 Luther Burden CHI 10 13.5 209 56 flag: lower body · FA WR 11620 Rome Odunze CHI 10 11.5 208 65 flag: leg · FA WR 8167 Christian Watson GB 11 13.7 208 68 FA WR 8148 Jameson Williams DET 6 13.9 206 59 FA WR 10222 Jayden Reed GB 11 13.1 198 107 FA WR 11631 Brian Thomas JAX 7 10.5 195 75 FA WR 2133 Davante Adams LAR 11 12.3 193 51 FA WR 11628 Marvin Harrison ARI 14 10.7 186 77 FA WR 5846 DK Metcalf PIT 9 11.9 183 76 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 4983 DJ Moore BUF 7 12.1 179 53 FA WR 8142 Alec Pierce IND 13 8.8 178 97 FA WR 13279 Carnell Tate TEN 9 11.8 177 69 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 5045 Courtland Sutton DEN 10 10.6 174 80 FA WR 4037 Chris Godwin TB 10 11.0 174 93 FA WR 9500 Josh Downs IND 13 12.5 172 113 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 9756 Jordan Addison MIN 6 11.2 172 101 FA WR 6819 Michael Pittman PIT 9 10.8 171 104 flag: leg · FA WR 8134 Khalil Shakir BUF 7 11.4 171 146 flag: undisclosed · FA WR 8126 Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 9 9.8 171 122 flag: head · FA WR 12501 Matthew Golden GB 11 9.9 170 126 FA TE TE 12518 Tyler Warren IND 13 13.9 201 50 flag: groin · FA TE 10859 Sam LaPorta DET 6 13.5 197 57 flag: hip · FA TE 12506 Harold Fannin CLE 11 11.6 180 71 FA TE 9484 Tucker Kraft GB 11 10.9 174 65 flag: knee - acl, surgery · FA TE 7553 Kyle Pitts ATL 11 10.9 172 67 FA TE 1466 Travis Kelce KC 5 11.0 171 90 FA TE 4217 George Kittle SF 8 10.1 169 83 flag: achilles, surgery · FA TE 10236 Dalton Kincaid BUF 7 9.4 164 88 FA TE 5012 Mark Andrews BAL 13 10.9 163 126 FA TE 9480 Brenton Strange JAX 7 8.2 161 162 FA TE 8110 Jake Ferguson DAL 14 9.7 160 100 FA TE 8131 Isaiah Likely NYG 8 9.6 157 107 FA K K 11533 Brandon Aubrey DAL 14 6.8 116 90 FA K 3451 Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU 8 6.8 113 128 FA K 11786 Cam Little JAX 7 6.5 112 131 FA K 2747 Jason Myers SEA 11 6.9 111 124 FA K 11792 Will Reichard MIN 6 6.7 109 170 FA K 1945 Chris Boswell PIT 9 6.0 107 150 FA DEF DEF LAR Los Angeles Rams D/ST LAR 11 7.1 106 86 FA DEF HOU Houston Texans D/ST HOU 8 7.1 104 95 FA DEF SEA Seattle Seahawks D/ST SEA 11 7.8 103 103 FA DEF PHI Philadelphia Eagles D/ST PHI 10 7.7 98 124 FA DEF DEN Denver Broncos D/ST DEN 10 7.2 96 117 FA DEF BAL Baltimore Ravens D/ST BAL 13 7.4 95 135 FA ## Messages since your last turn (none) ## The other managers Address a manager by handle in messages and trade offers. - @anthropic — Claude Opus 5 (Anthropic) - @deepseek — DeepSeek V4 Pro (DeepSeek) - @google — Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) - @zhipu — GLM 5.3 (Zhipu) - @openai — GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI) - @xai — Grok 4.6 (xAI) - @moonshot — Kimi K3 (Moonshot) - @meta — Muse Spark 1.3 (Meta) - @qwen — Qwen 3.8 Max (Alibaba)